A Gold Map on Homestake
Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter
Onchain data tracked from bear floors through bull confirmation
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We built this map to surface how Checkonchain uses realized price, Long-Term Holder supply, and Short-Term Holder cost basis to identify cycle turning points—especially the bear-market floors and the exact moments confirmation flips a market from bear to bull. The newsletter also tracks leverage risk through futures positioning and macro conditions like dollar strength as persistent volatility drivers.
7 hours of reading across 51 posts, all of it searchable. Ask this map and get answers in minutes: What's the real bear floor? When does STH cost basis reclaim signal the bull? How high does this cycle go? All drawn from the creator's own words, subscriber-only access required.
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Ask Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter anything. The answer comes from the digs on this page.
What the map covers
Onchain-data-driven Bitcoin market analysis tracking cycle bottoms, bull confirmation, and leverage risk
Checkonchain is a Bitcoin-focused newsletter that uses onchain metrics (realized price, STH/LTH cost basis, MVRV, supply-in-profit) alongside macro and derivatives data to call cycle turning points. Recurring guests and Q&A sessions supplement regular market updates, with heavy emphasis on identifying bear-market floors and bull-market confirmation triggers.
Bear bottom identification
- Multiple posts converge on a bear floor between the Realized Price (~$52-53.4k) and the 200-week moving average (~$61.7-64k), treating this zone as historically extreme capitulation territory.
→ Why HODLers Put Floors In · The Pointy End
- Long-Term Holder supply share repeatedly hit all-time highs (77-84%+ of Realised Cap) during the decline, a pattern seen only at prior cycle lows and interpreted as seller exhaustion rather than distribution.
→ Dead Quiet · Momentum Sprouts
Bull confirmation triggers
- The Short-Term Holder cost basis (moving from ~$67k-$68k up to $71k over successive posts) was repeatedly flagged as the key level whose reclaim would flip the market from bear to bull.
→ The Waiting Room · Edging Higher
- A short-squeeze event that returned 14% of supply to profit in one day, followed by a break above $82-82.5k, were treated as sequential confirmations that the bear case was effectively dead.
→ Short Squeeze! · The Bears Last Stand
Cycle top and price targets
- Conservative onchain models project a cycle peak of $300k-$366k by around 2030, roughly a 5x from prior lows.
→ Numba Go Up
- Once in the bull phase, the newsletter shifts focus from price targets to onchain exit signals - watching Percent Supply in Profit falling below 75%, MVRV Z-Score extremes, and revived supply/SOPR spikes as the true topping indicators.
→ Bull Markets For Dummies · August Q&A: DCA strategy, taking profits, topping signals, bear market lessons + more
Leverage, derivatives, and Strategy (MSTR) risk
- Strategy's (MSTR) mNAV compression toward 1.0, depleted cash runway, and dividend obligations were tracked as a recurring solvency overhang that could force BTC sales and mark a final capitulation low.
→ Saylor's Sticky Situation · Sub Par
- Futures positioning was closely monitored for leverage-driven volatility risk, from an extreme OI-to-volume ratio warning of violent moves to later confirmation that a 30% rally carried minimal leveraged-long risk.
→ Squeeze 'em · Market Update: High & Tight
Security incidents and tail risks
- A Coldcard firmware exploit enabling theft of 594 BTC prompted urgent migration guidance, distinguishing safe fund moves from actual losses and recommending multi-sig or passphrase defenses.
→ ⚠️ PSA: Addressing The Coldcard Exploit · A Shaken Industry
- Follow-up analysis showed the exploit triggered ~233k BTC in migrations but only ~2.1k BTC actual theft, with price essentially unaffected, illustrating markets absorbing security shocks efficiently.
→ The Onchain Migration
Questions
Before you dig in
What is Checkonchain about?
A Bitcoin newsletter that reads onchain metrics—realized price, STH/LTH cost basis, supply-in-profit, MVRV—to call cycle turning points and identify when bear floors form and bull markets confirm. Macro data and leverage positioning round out the analysis.
Is Checkonchain worth reading?
If you trade or hold Bitcoin and care about cycle timing and onchain capitulation signals, yes. The newsletter tracks the metrics that historically mark bottoms and tops, then shifts its focus once bull confirmation arrives. This map points you to the posts behind each signal.
What does Checkonchain say about the next bull market peak?
Conservative onchain models project a cycle peak of $300k–$366k by around 2030, roughly a 5x from prior lows. Once in confirmed bull mode, the newsletter stops naming price targets and instead watches supply-in-profit and MVRV Z-Score extremes for actual exit signals.
How do I start reading Checkonchain?
Start with the digs on bear-floor identification and bull-confirmation triggers: Did We Slay The Bear, Market Update: High & Tight, and Why HODLers Put Floors In. They establish the core onchain framework and recent cycle narrative.
Is this map official?
No. This is an unofficial, independent guide built from the creator's public episodes and subscriber-only posts. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by Checkonchain.
What do I get if I sign up?
Your account gets a Mine named after the map, with any free posts ready to read now; the subscriber-only digs unlock once you connect your own Checkonchain subscription. You also get free credits to ask the map anything and get answers drawn from the creator's own words.
Start here
The digs we’d hand you first
Each one is a full Homestake dig — summary, insights, flashcards, and Ask — that unlocks in your account once you connect your Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter subscription.
Subscriber-onlyNewestStill Stair-Stepping Higher
Onchain data shows a healthy, leverage-free Bitcoin rally — and the exact signal to watch for the next dip-buying opportunity.
Oct 5, 2026
Subscriber-onlyDid We Slay The Bear?
Bitcoin just cleared three bear-defence levels on spot demand — here's the on-chain case the bottom is in.
Aug 24, 2026
Subscriber-onlyMarket Update: High & Tight
Bitcoin's consolidation below $83k looks like a bull flag — here's the onchain data making the case.
Sep 8, 2026
Subscriber-onlyWhy HODLers Put Floors In
HODLer dominance has compressed two key Bitcoin price metrics to a historic low spread, making $52k an unusually reliable floor.
Jul 24, 2026
Subscriber-onlyBull Markets For Dummies
A framework for reading onchain data — supply in profit, SOPR, MVRV — to time bull-market entries and exits.
Sep 10, 2026
Subscriber-onlyWhat If I'm Wrong?
The bear market floor is likely already behind us — here's the on-chain case against the $45k consensus.
Jul 14, 2026
Subscriber-onlyEdging Higher
Fresh on-chain data pins Bitcoin's next make-or-break level at $68k.
Jul 21, 2026
Subscriber-onlyThe Pointy End
Falling to $53.4k realized price would submerge more Bitcoin supply than two prior bear markets combined — a historically decisive threshold.
Jun 23, 2026
The whole catalog
Every Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter dig on the map
51 digs, newest first — subscriber-only digs unlock once your subscription is connected.
Still Stair-Stepping Higher
Oct 5, 2026
September Q&A: Bull market roadmap, topping signals, DCA strategy, MSTR, ASST + more
Oct 2, 2026
September Q&A - Ask Your Question Here
Sep 30, 2026
ETF Inflows Reignite
Sep 28, 2026
The Biggest Bull Days
Sep 24, 2026
The Coiled Serpent
Sep 21, 2026
Just Another Lower High
Sep 18, 2026
Local Sellers
Sep 14, 2026
Bull Markets For Dummies
Sep 10, 2026
Market Update: High & Tight
Sep 8, 2026
Regime Change
Sep 4, 2026
The Bears Last Stand
Aug 31, 2026
More Gold Maps
This page is a transformative index of summaries Homestake produced from Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter’s content. All rights to the original content remain with its creator.