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The Data Says Bitcoin’s Bottom Is Already In | Mitchell Askew & John Haar — Key Takeaways

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The Data Says Bitcoin’s Bottom Is Already In | Mitchell Askew & John Haar

What Bitcoin Did1h 28mAug 7, 2026

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Buy Bitcoin now — on-chain data (>50% of UTXOs underwater, realized cap down only 5% vs. 14-19% in prior bear markets, long-term holder selling tapering) collectively signals the bottom is in or very near, with 95% confidence from the analysts.

Key takeaways

Bitcoin hash rate down 16% from peak — miners earn 16% more BTC per unit of work today

Bitcoin hash rate down 16% from peak — miners earn 16% more BTC per unit of work today

  • Hash rate has not made a new all-time high in 8+ months — longest stretch in Bitcoin history — as large miners pivot to AI
  • No new air-cooled Bitmain ASIC in ~2 years; TSMC/Samsung prioritize AI chip orders over Bitcoin miner semiconductors

2M BTC (10% of supply) sold by long-term holders over 2 years; selling has now tapered

2M BTC (10% of supply) sold by long-term holders over 2 years; selling has now tapered

  • Supply unmoved 2+ years peaked at 57% before ATH run, dropped to 47% — but the rate of decline has flattened in the last 6 months
  • Realized cap drawdown is only 5% vs 14-19% in prior bear markets, indicating exits were profit-taking not panic selling

AI sucked risk-on liquidity from Bitcoin; rotation back is the bull case

AI sucked risk-on liquidity from Bitcoin; rotation back is the bull case

  • Global M2 at all-time highs while Bitcoin dropped 50% — first-ever downside disconnect from M2 correlation
  • AI capex projections nearly double in 2026 vs 2025; when that trade cools, Bitcoin and gold are the logical destinations

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In this video

  1. 1mIntroduction
  2. 1mTreasury Capitulation and the Strategy Debate
  3. 12mWhy Bitcoin Broke Away From Global Liquidity
  4. 17mFour Forces Behind the 50% Drawdown
  5. 19mIs the Four-Year Cycle Self-Fulfilling?
  6. 24mMoney Printing, Deficits and War Spending
  7. 26mDid AI Steal Bitcoin’s Bull Run?
  8. 44mAre the OG Sellers Finally Exhausted?
  9. 56mCan You Trust On-Chain Data?
  10. 1h 2mWhy Markets May Be Wrong About a Rate Hike
  11. 1h 6mCapitulation, Scarcity and the Next Adoption Wave
  12. 1h 17mBitcoin Mining and Tax Incentives
  13. 1h 21mHashrate Falls as Miners Pivot to AI

“The simple matter of the fact is AI sucked all the risk on liquidity out of the market.”

— John

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