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Is The Bitcoin Power Law Broken? | Matthew Mezinskis — Key Takeaways

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Is The Bitcoin Power Law Broken? | Matthew Mezinskis

What Bitcoin Did1h 41mJul 10, 2026

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Bitcoin is currently at its deepest statistical value relative to the power law trend in its history, with the current price (~$62K) sitting far below the model's median projection of ~$140K, making this a historically strong buy signal by the analyst's own quantile regression framework.

Key takeaways

Bitcoin power law trend currently implies $140K fair value vs $62K price

Bitcoin power law trend currently implies $140K fair value vs $62K price

  • Power curve OS (mean regression) projects ~$140K as of mid-2025; spot price at $62K is ~55% below trend.
  • Trailing 12-month power law growth rate is 40.2%/yr — still far above any cost of capital threshold.

Bitcoin is statistically cheapest ever relative to power law — deep value signal

Bitcoin is statistically cheapest ever relative to power law — deep value signal

  • Quantile regression shows price near Q0 (least-probable low); prior Q0 touches in 2018, 2020, 2022 all marked cycle bottoms.
  • Current drawdown 53% — shallower than 2018 (84%), 2020 (77%), 2014 (85%) — yet sentiment is described as worst ever.

Strategy (MSTR) faces structural risk when Bitcoin trend growth falls below ~10%

Strategy (MSTR) faces structural risk when Bitcoin trend growth falls below ~10%

  • Saylor's cost of capital is now ~12-13%; Bitcoin power law growth projected to slow to 30%/yr by 2031, 20% by 2041.
  • If Bitcoin trend growth ever drops below Saylor's cost of capital, Strategy must shrink capital costs or shed coins.

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In this video

  1. 1mIntroduction and Power Law Overview
  2. 7mWhat Would Break the Power Law?
  3. 15mStock-to-Flow vs Power Law: Why S2F Failed
  4. 25mSponsor Breaks
  5. 29mExponential vs Power Growth: Chart Analysis
  6. 40mQuantile Regression and Cycle Analysis
  7. 53mSponsor Breaks (Mid-Episode)
  8. 57mThe Four-Year Cycle: Is It Still Real?
  9. 1h 7mCurrent Bottom and Next Cycle Price Targets
  10. 1h 15mSuper-Exponential Growth and the Financial Singularity
  11. 1h 27mBitcoin's Grand Theory: Power vs Exponential Future

“We're all going to be rich and depressed because the project failed.”

— Thomas Pacquia

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