Is The Fed Lying About Inflation? | James Lavish — Key Takeaways
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Is The Fed Lying About Inflation? | James Lavish
What Bitcoin Did1h 4mJul 8, 2026
Watch the originalWhen the Fed balance sheet visibly expands again — watch for SLR exemptions, Treasury buyback programs, or mortgage-backed security reinvestment acceleration — that is the clearest signal to add Bitcoin and hard assets, as quiet debasement is already underway and will intensify.
Key takeaways
Credit card 90-day delinquencies now match 2008 crisis levels
Credit card 90-day delinquencies now match 2008 crisis levels
- New York Fed Q1 data shows 90-day credit card delinquencies at 2008 levels — alongside rising student loan defaults.
- Credit card spending continues rising despite delinquencies, signaling consumers are borrowing to survive, not splurge.
Cutting Fed funds rate won't lower long-term yields — bond market proved it
Cutting Fed funds rate won't lower long-term yields — bond market proved it
- When Powell cut 100bps pre-election, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 100bps as bond traders priced in inflation risk.
- 10-year hovering near 4.5-5% reflects fiscal dominance — $12T in debt rolling this year alone forces yields structurally higher.
Fed balance sheet expansion is the real signal — not rate moves
Fed balance sheet expansion is the real signal — not rate moves
- Fed is reinvesting maturing MBS proceeds into Treasuries, keeping balance sheet quietly expanding while rate talk dominates headlines.
- Treasury buyback program purchasing off-the-run paper adds stealth liquidity; mainstream financial media ignores it entirely.
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In this video
- 1mIntroduction: Fiscal Deficits, Social Security, and Consumer Debt
- 5mFed Under Worsh: Inflation Measurement and the 2% Target
- 15mTrimmed Mean PCE and Lagging Inflation Indicators
- 22mAI, Disinflation, and Fiscal Dominance
- 30mFed Independence, Rate Strategy, and Treasury Debt Rollover
- 38mBalance Sheet Expansion, Bond Markets, and Global Dollar Shortage
- 45mAI's Economic Impact: Jobs, the K-Shaped Economy, and the Intelligence Staircase
- 53mCredit Card Delinquencies, Asset Holders, and Recession Risk
- 58mBitcoin Outlook and the Hot Ball of Money
- 1h 3mQE, Yield Curve Control, and Quiet Debasement
“The first quarter New York Fed numbers came out and credit card delinquencies, 90-day delinquencies are matching the 2008 levels.”
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