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Lyn Alden on Fiscal Dominance, 7% Mortgages, and Bitcoin's 10-Year Outlook — Key Takeaways

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Lyn Alden on Fiscal Dominance, 7% Mortgages, and Bitcoin's 10-Year Outlook

Natalie Brunell1h 18mOct 30, 2026

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Bitcoin at ~$1M by 2036 is a reasonable base case, but anything below ~$500K would signal the thesis is failing — and in the near term, memory stocks like Micron should be faded after big moves, not chased.

Key takeaways

Don't short bonds — dilution math improved since the 2010s

Don't short bonds — dilution math improved since the 2010s

  • 2010s: 2.5% yield vs 7% money supply growth = -4.5% net dilution
  • Now: 5% yield vs 6% money supply growth = -1% net dilution
  • Speculative bond bearishness on Twitter is fading signal, not risk signal

Fade memory stock rallies; buy when valuations look high

Fade memory stock rallies; buy when valuations look high

  • Memory trades like commodities: buy at peak earnings compression, sell after big runups
  • Cash-secured puts on dips, fade moves after explosive gains

Fiscal deficits are the quiet force propping up asset prices

Fiscal deficits are the quiet force propping up asset prices

  • 7% of GDP structural deficits are the 'fifth biggest pressure' every week
  • Leverage has shifted from private sector (2008) to the sovereign — this runs hot

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In this video

  1. 1mTrailer
  2. 1mSocial media algorithm trap
  3. 6mAI bubble or boom?
  4. 12mMidterm crash ahead?
  5. 16mWeak gold outlook ahead?
  6. 26mThe boring force moving markets
  7. 34mCould we see 3% mortgage again?
  8. 39mIs a banking crisis next?
  9. 44mWill AI crack Bitcoin?
  10. 51mThe $130K Bitcoin disaster
  11. 54mDigital credit and MSTR
  12. 1h 1mLyn's biggest miss
  13. 1h 3mOrange Juice vs. private equity
  14. 1h 11mBetting against the bond bears
  15. 1h 14mBitcoin in 2036

“That's the invisible rugpull for why this works is that everybody around the world has this like invisible gradual debasement of their near-term savings.”

— Lyn Alden

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