Global Liquidity Has Peaked: What Happens to Bitcoin? | Michael Howell — Key Takeaways
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Global Liquidity Has Peaked: What Happens to Bitcoin? | Michael Howell
What Bitcoin Did1h 5mJul 22, 2026
Watch the originalHold Bitcoin and gold long-term but avoid aggressive buying now — the global liquidity cycle peaked Q3 2024 and won't bottom until H2 2027, meaning Bitcoin could end 2025 lower than current levels despite the long-term bull case.
Key takeaways
Global liquidity cycle peaked Q3 2024, won't bottom until H2 2027
Global liquidity cycle peaked Q3 2024, won't bottom until H2 2027
- 65-month sine wave model estimated in 2000, independently validated by Foundation for the Study of Cycles — still fits.
- Cycle driven by ~5-6yr average debt maturity; previous trough was Sept 2022, next trough projected H2 2027.
Debt maturity wall accelerates from 2025 onward, compressing liquidity further
Debt maturity wall accelerates from 2025 onward, compressing liquidity further
- Corporations and governments termed out debt at zero rates in 2020-21; that refinancing wave now hits 2025+ at much higher yields.
- This is existing debt only — add US deficit spending, European fiscal needs, and AI capex on top.
US nominal GDP running ~9-10%; Fed easing now would be catastrophic
US nominal GDP running ~9-10%; Fed easing now would be catastrophic
- M2 growth hit ~10% annualized 3-month rate recently; Philadelphia Fed data shows surging activity plus high inflation.
- SOFR-to-2yr Treasury spread has gone negative — same signal preceded 25% S&P drop and 75% Bitcoin drop in 2021-22.
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In this video
- 1mIntroduction
- 1mWhy Liquidity Moves Markets
- 6mWhat Economists Get Wrong About Markets
- 17mBitcoin, Gold and the Everything Bubble
- 26mWhat Liquidity Is Signalling for Bitcoin
- 39mWhy Strong Economic Growth Can Hurt Markets
- 46mThe Market Sets Rates, Not the Fed
- 50mHow the Next Financial Crisis Begins
- 59mWhy Governments Must Inflate the Debt Away
“money moves markets and it's really as straightforward as that”
— Michael How
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